Technical Analysis

USDCAD bears keep the bias in their favor

Corrective move higher stalled ahead of its falling 100 hour moving average

The USDCAD is up modestly from Friday’s closing levels but also well off the highs for the day. The high price reached 1.2409. The current price is trading at 1.2366.

The move to the upside in the Asian session saw the price move up to 1.2409 and closer to its falling 100 hour moving average. At the high, the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) was just above that level at 1.2413. Sellers leaned against the level as risk can be defined and limited. 

The price in the North American session has moved back toward the Asian session lows in the close from last Friday.

Stay below the 100 hour moving average keeps the sellers firmly in control. It would take a move above that moving average and other targets including a swing area between 1.2422 and 1.24459, and the falling 200 hour moving average at 1.2466 currently to give the buyers more confidence (and more control). Absent those moves and the sellers remain in firm control.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the price last week stayed below its 200 and 100 day moving averages (blue and green lines which are both converged near 1.2500 currently). The price also dipped below the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 trading range at 1.2366. 

The current price is trading right around that 61.8% retracement level. Move below it and sellers increase the bearish bias/control. 

The low price from July came in at 1.2302 (just above the natural support at 1.2300) and other swing lows on the daily chart at 1.22516 are other downside targets from the daily chart on further downside momentum.

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