S&P Global US services PMI 49.2 vs 45.0 expected

  • Prior was 43.7
  • Manufacturing 51.8 vs 51.1 expected
  • Prior manufacturing 51.5
  • Composite 49.3 vs 44.6 prior

Is this a situation where good news is bad news? The Fed wants to see demand sag and there’s been a bounce in services..

Comments on prices:

Reflecting softer rises in cost burdens, firms increased their selling prices at a slower pace at the end of the third quarter. That said, the moderation was led by service providers as manufacturers registered a sharper uptick in output charges in an effort to pass on higher costs to clients.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“US businesses are reporting a third consecutive monthly fall in output during September, rounding off the weakest quarter for the economy since the global financial crisis if the pandemic lockdowns of early-2020 are excluded. However, while output declined in both manufacturing and services during September, in both cases the rate of contraction moderated compared to August, notably in services, with orders books returning to modest growth, allaying some concerns about the depth of the current downturn.

“There was also better news on inflation, with supplier shortages easing to the lowest since October 2020, helping take some of the pressure off raw material prices. These improved supply chains, accompanied by the marked softening of demand since earlier in the year, helped cool overall the rate of inflation of both firms’ costs and average selling prices for goods and services to the lowest since early-2021.

Inflation pressures nevertheless remain elevated by historical standards and, with business activity in decline, the surveys continue to paint a broad picture of an economy struggling in a stagflationary environment.”

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