The AUDUSD moved sharply higher after stronger CPI data in the Asian-Pacific session. CPI came in at up 1.9% for the quarter. With the central bank targeting 2.0% for the year, the 1.9% is just too high. The YoY inflation moved up to 8.4%. A higher AUD is needed to lower import inflation at least.
The move to the upside took the price back above the broken trend line, but stalled ahead of a upward sloping trend line connecting recent highs going back to early January on the hourly chart above.
After peaking at 0.7122, the price has been retracing much of the gains. However, the price decline has stalled near the high price from last week near 0.70629. The low price reached the 0.70614. The current price trades at 0.70804.
Going forward it would take a move back below the 0.70629 level – and staying below- to increase the bearish bias.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the move to the upside today took the price above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2022 high, to the 2022 low. That level comes in at 0.70911. The high price for the day, fell short of the swing high from. August 11 at 0.71357 (the high reach 0.7122). Getting back above the 61.8% retracement and the 0.71357 level is needed to open the door for further upside momentum.
Although there is some disappointment on the break higher off the daily chart (back below the 61.8% and did not reach the next upside target), the retracement can back to support from last week’s high and stalled. The buyers are still in control. The sellers need to get back below 0.70629 to give the sellers the minimum “win” to be in the ball game. Absent that, and the buyers are still in firm control.